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巴曙松教授,博士,国务院发展研究中心金融研究所副所长,研究员,博士生导师,享受国务院特殊津贴。    巴曙松教授在银行、证券、基金、企业年金等领域有过10余年的实践工作经验,熟悉商业银行风险管理、基金与年金运作,参与中银香港海外重组上市项目,主持起草了《中银香港风险管理政策与流程》。目前的主要研究领域为金融机构风险管理与金融市场监管、企业融资问题与货币政策决策,出版了国内第一本系统研究巴塞尔新资本协议的《巴塞尔新资本协议研究》(中国金融出版社2003年版)

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关于美国经济增速放缓(及导致的其他发达国家经济随之放缓)对新  

2007-12-19 10:34:24|  分类: 信息汇总 |  标签: |举报 |字号 订阅

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JP Morgan:

Thereport is quite +ve on the financial markets' robustness againstthe slowdown in GDP growth in EU and U.S., and the support providedto the EM econ growth.

 

High,neutral, low beta EMs. China stands out as among the leastinsolated to the slowdown in developed economies.

 

Happyto discuss.

 

 

TheOdd Decouple

 

"     Economic growth in the US, Canada, and Western Europe isdownshifting sharply in the face of significant headwinds,including the continued slump in the US housing market, a sharptightening in credit markets, and yet another jump in energyprices. In response, JPMorgan has lowered its forecast of the levelof GDP in this region by 0.75% in 4Q07 and 1Q08. The ability of therest of the world to absorb this slowdown will help determinewhether the global expansion muddles through or experiences a moreserious downturn.

 

"     History shows that the transmission from developed to emergingmarket growth operates through two channels. The first is throughtrade and manufacturing linkages. The second is through financialmarkets, whereby a reduction in global risk appetite curtailscapital inflows, depreciates currencies and produces a significanttightening in EM financial conditions.

 

"     If these two channels operate normally, our analysis suggests thata moderation in developed market growth is ultimately matched by acomparable slowing in the EM. This relationship varies widely byregion and country, with EM Asia tending to be "low beta," EMEurope being "neutral beta," and Latin America being "high beta."Across countries, China and Russia respond the least, while Taiwan,Turkey, and Mexico respond the most.

 

"     Although EM exports and manufacturing activity are starting to feelthe shock, EM financial markets are not following the normalscript. Capital inflows to the EM have been remarkably strong onnet since the outset of the credit turmoil this past summer,focused in the equity market. Commodity prices and EM currencieshave also remained firm. The absence of a negative financial marketspillover to date in EM economies likely reflects, in part, theimproved fundamental position of this group.

 

"     If EM continue to see little or no financial fallout fromthe

developed market slowdown, our analysis suggeststhis could offset more than half of the drag on growth by the endof 2008. Under this scenario, trade linkages would still produce amaterial slowing in EM industrial activity growth. But EM domesticdemand and GDP would be expected to continue to expandsolidly.

 

"     If realized, this dynamic would reflect a reversal of roles fromthe 1997-98 period. At that time the United States experienced amanufacturing sector contraction, but maintained strong demandgrowth, which helped temper the severity of the recession inAsia.

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