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巴曙松教授,博士,国务院发展研究中心金融研究所副所长,研究员,博士生导师,享受国务院特殊津贴。    巴曙松教授在银行、证券、基金、企业年金等领域有过10余年的实践工作经验,熟悉商业银行风险管理、基金与年金运作,参与中银香港海外重组上市项目,主持起草了《中银香港风险管理政策与流程》。目前的主要研究领域为金融机构风险管理与金融市场监管、企业融资问题与货币政策决策,出版了国内第一本系统研究巴塞尔新资本协议的《巴塞尔新资本协议研究》(中国金融出版社2003年版)

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As the global perspective makes clear, the reduction of the U.S. current account deficit also requires efforts on the part of the surplus countries to reduce the excess of their desired saving over desired investment.  Over the longer term, the current account surpluses of the emerging-market countries seem likely to narrow as domestic spending catches up with income.  Economic policies in these countries can assist this process.  For example, the oil exporters have collectively saved much of the windfall arising from higher crude prices in recent years; they should spend more in the future to develop and diversify their domestic economies.  China has officially recognized the need to increase its domestic spending and scale back its reliance on exports.  Measures that could help achieve these goals include further reforms of the financial sector; increased government spending on infrastructure, environmental improvement, and the social safety net; and currency appreciation.  In East Asia excluding China, continued efforts to strengthen and deepen the banking sector and financial markets would help domestic investment recover from the lingering effects of the financial crises of the 1990s.  In each of these cases, the indicated policies would reduce global imbalances.  Moreover, as with U.S. saving efforts, these actions would convey important economic benefits to the countries undertaking them even if current account balances were not an issue.

 

What implications would a gradual rebalancing have for long-term real interest rates?  The logic of the global saving glut suggests that, as the glut dissipates over the next few decades and thereby reduces the net supply of financial capital from emerging-market countries, real interest rates should rise--a tendency that seems likely to be only partly offset by increased saving in the industrial countries.  However, factors other than the saving-investment balance affect long-term interest rates, including the relative supplies of, and demands for, long-term securities and changes in the required compensation for the risk embedded in term premiums.  Moreover, distant one-year forward interest rates remain low, an indication that markets currently do not expect much change in the global balance of desired saving and investment or that they expect the effects of such a change to be offset by other developments.  Accordingly, we are again reminded of the need to maintain appropriate humility in forecasting returns and asset prices.

 

Current Account Balances
(Billions of U.S. dollars)

Country or region

1996

2000

2004

2005

2006

Industrial

31.1

-304.7

-296.5

-502.5

-607.3

    United States

-124.8

-417.4

-640.2

-754.8

-811.5

    Japan

65.7

119.6

172.1

165.7

170.4

 

    Euro area 1

77.3

-37.0

115.0

22.2

-11.1

        France

23.4

22.3

10.5

-19.5

-28.3

        Germany

-14.0

-32.6

118.0

128.4

146.4

        Italy

36.8

-6.2

-15.5

-28.4

-41.6

        Spain

-1.4

-23.1

-54.9

-83.0

-108.0

 

    Other

12.9

30.0

56.6

64.4

45.0

        Australia

-15.4

-14.9

-38.5

-41.2

-40.9

        Canada

3.4

19.7

21.3

26.3

21.5

        Switzerland

22.0

30.7

50.4

61.4

69.8

        United Kingdom

-10.5

-37.6

-35.4

-53.7

-88.3

 

    Memo:
        Industrial excl.
        United States

155.9

112.7

343.7

252.3

204.2

 

Developing

-82.8

124.7

296.5

507.9

643.2

    Asia

-40.2

77.0

172.4

245.1

352.1

        China

7.2

20.5

68.7

160.8

249.9

        Hong Kong

-4.0

7.0

15.7

20.3

20.6

        Korea

-23.1

12.3

28.2

15.0

6.1

        Taiwan

10.9

8.9

18.5

16.0

24.7

        Thailand

-14.4

9.3

2.8

-7.9

3.2

 

    Latin America

-39.1

-48.1

20.4

34.6

48.7

        Argentina

-6.8

-9.0

3.2

3.5

5.2

        Brazil

-23.5

-24.2

11.7

14.2

13.6

        Mexico

-2.5

-18.7

-6.7

-4.9

-1.5

 

    Middle East

15.1

72.1

99.2

189.0

212.4

    Africa

-5.2

7.2

0.6

14.6

19.9

    Eastern Europe

-18.5

-31.8

-58.6

-63.2

-88.9

    Former Soviet Union

5.2

48.3

62.6

87.7

99.0

 

    Memo:
        Developing Asia
        excl. China

-47.4

56.5

103.7

84.3

102.2

 

Statistical discrepancy

-51.6

-180.0

0.0

5.4

35.9

1. Calculated as the sum of the balances of the thirteen euro-area countries. Return to table

Source: For the United States, Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.  For some countries other than the United States, national sources; for most countries, however, International Monetary Fund (IMF), World Economic Outlook Database , April 2007 (www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2007/01/data/index.aspx); some values for 2006 are IMF estimates.

 

 

 

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