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巴曙松教授,博士,国务院发展研究中心金融研究所副所长,研究员,博士生导师,享受国务院特殊津贴。    巴曙松教授在银行、证券、基金、企业年金等领域有过10余年的实践工作经验,熟悉商业银行风险管理、基金与年金运作,参与中银香港海外重组上市项目,主持起草了《中银香港风险管理政策与流程》。目前的主要研究领域为金融机构风险管理与金融市场监管、企业融资问题与货币政策决策,出版了国内第一本系统研究巴塞尔新资本协议的《巴塞尔新资本协议研究》(中国金融出版社2003年版)

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china: foreign trade at a turning point  

2008-01-15 11:27:09|  分类: 信息汇总 |  标签: |举报 |字号 订阅

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Bottom Line:Export growth outpaced import growthfor third straight year in 2007, with annual trade surplus reachingUS$262bn. But in recent months imports have been consistentlyrising faster than exports, pointing to a significant change toChina’s external imbalance. The currency will remain underpressures from large trade surplus in absolute terms and elevatedinflation.

  • December 2007 export growth slowedto 21.7% year-on-year from 22.8% in November, while import growthticked up to 25.7% from 25.3% in November. Trade surplus came in atUS$22.7bn in December 2007, up 8.1% y-o-y but below November’sUS$26.3bn. 
  • For the whole year of 2007,exports grew 25.7% and imports grew 20.8%, with trade surplussurging 47.7% to US$262.2bn. But since October 2007 imports havebeen consistently rising faster than exports (Export growth fell to22.8% y-o-y in 4Q07 from 26.2% in 3Q07, while import growth rose to25.2% in 4Q07 from 20.8% in 3Q07). A number of factors are behindthis significant change:
  1. In 2007 China scrapped much tax onimports, and also reduced or abolished VAT rebates on a wide rangeof export goods in an effort to cure its externalimbalance.
  2. The breakout of subprime crisis inAugust 2007 could weaken demand on Chinese exports.
  3. A pick up in RMB appreciation in4Q07 could also play a role in rising import growth and fallingexport growth.
  • Actually, if measured in RMB(given rapid currency valuation changes, we believe it’s moreappropriate to use RMB in some circumstances), export growth fellmore rapidly in 4Q07 due to an acceleration of RMB appreciation inthat period (See the Chart).
  • In sum, trade surplus in absoluteterms was still high and the currency will remain under pressure.But we see the turning point in China’s foreign trade in 4Q07 andwe expect import growth to continue to match export growth in 2008.We also believe weaker export demand in 2008 will have significantbearings on China’s macro policy (for an outlook of Chineseeconomy, see our report “Chinese Economy in the Year of Rat”, 10January 2008).


Link to the full report:http://researcharchive.worldnet.ml.com/GetDoc.aspx?id=10686770&type=Pdf

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