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巴曙松教授,博士,国务院发展研究中心金融研究所副所长,研究员,博士生导师,享受国务院特殊津贴。    巴曙松教授在银行、证券、基金、企业年金等领域有过10余年的实践工作经验,熟悉商业银行风险管理、基金与年金运作,参与中银香港海外重组上市项目,主持起草了《中银香港风险管理政策与流程》。目前的主要研究领域为金融机构风险管理与金融市场监管、企业融资问题与货币政策决策,出版了国内第一本系统研究巴塞尔新资本协议的《巴塞尔新资本协议研究》(中国金融出版社2003年版)

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the liquidity condition is running against the s  

2008-08-04 22:41:00|  分类: 默认分类 |  标签: |举报 |字号 订阅

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香港市场的流动性存在风险
 
MORGAN STANLEY RESEARCH

HONG KONG ECONOMICS: THE TIDE HAS TURNED IN MONETARY CONDITIONS - August 04, 2008 GMT (6 pgs/ 63 kb)

Denise Yam, CFA  +852 2848 5301  Morgan Stanley Asia Limited

HK$ M3 contracted 3.8% YoY in June: HK$ broad money supply M3 contracted YoY for the first time in more than three years, by 3.8% in June. In our view, this should serve as a wakeup call that the liquidity party, which has buoyed Hong Kong's asset markets in the past few years, is finally coming to an end. While the particularly weak June figure was likely due to a high base for comparison in the year-ago period amidst a large IPO that took place at the time, various other indicators that we have been following also suggest a general tightening in monetary conditions.

US$8.3 bn capital outflow in June 2008: Capital outflows brought the banking system's net foreign asset position (proxy for the stock of excess liquidity) down to US$40.8 bn at the end of June, with a sizeable drop of US$8.3 bn in June alone.

Sharp rebound in HK$ loan-to-deposit ratio: A narrowing net foreign asset position in the banking system implies a rebound in the HK$ loan-to-deposit ratio (LDR), the low level of which had suppressed interest rates in the past few years. Indeed, the sharp rebound in LDR has narrowed the HIBOR-LIBOR spread significantly in recent months.

The tide has turned in monetary conditions: Easy monetary conditions that have buoyed asset markets in the past few years appear to have made a decisive turn. We believe that the shortfall in credit and liquidity in the developed markets in the aftermath of the US subprime crisis is set to affect the Asian monetary systems.
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