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巴曙松教授,博士,国务院发展研究中心金融研究所副所长,研究员,博士生导师,享受国务院特殊津贴。    巴曙松教授在银行、证券、基金、企业年金等领域有过10余年的实践工作经验,熟悉商业银行风险管理、基金与年金运作,参与中银香港海外重组上市项目,主持起草了《中银香港风险管理政策与流程》。目前的主要研究领域为金融机构风险管理与金融市场监管、企业融资问题与货币政策决策,出版了国内第一本系统研究巴塞尔新资本协议的《巴塞尔新资本协议研究》(中国金融出版社2003年版)

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纽约时报:巴郡公司2季度末数据显示其投资组合整体上  

2009-09-10 15:57:54|  分类: 默认分类 |  标签: |举报 |字号 订阅

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纽约时报:巴郡公司2季度末数据显示其投资组合整体上减持股票增持债券

 

Closely Watched Buffett Recalculating His Bets
Andrew Harrer/Bloomberg News
Last fall, Warren Buffett, 79, made big bets on Goldman Sachs andGeneral Electric. Now, his Berkshire Hathaway is buying fewerstocks.
By GRAHAM BOWLEY
Published: September 7, 2009
Warren E. Buffett has two cardinal rules of investing. Rule No. 1:Never lose money. Rule No. 2: Never forget Rule No. 1.
Well, a lot of old rules got trashed when the financial crisisstruck — even for the Oracle of Omaha.
At 79, Mr. Buffett is coming off the worst year of his long,storied career. On paper, he personally lost an estimated $25billion in the financial panic of 2008, enough to cost him histitle as the world’s richest man. (His friend and sometime bridgepartner, Bill Gates, now holds that honor, according toForbes.)
And yet few people on or off Wall Street have capitalized on thiscrisis as deftly as Mr. Buffett. After counseling Washington torescue the nation’s financial industry and publicly urgingAmericans to buy stocks as the markets reeled, in he swooped. Mr.Buffett positioned himself to profit from the market mayhem — aswell as all those taxpayer-financed bailouts — and thus secure hislegacy as one of the greatest investors of all time.
When so many others were running scared last autumn, Mr. Buffettinvested billions in Goldman Sachs — and got a far better deal thanWashington. He then staked billions more on General Electric. Whiletaxpayers never bailed out Mr. Buffett, they did bail out some ofhis stock picks. Goldman, American Express, Bank of America, WellsFargo, U.S. Bancorp — all of them got public bailouts thatultimately benefited private shareholders like Mr. Buffett.
If Mr. Buffett picked well — and, so far, it looks as if he did —his payoff could be enormous. But now, only a year after the crisisstruck, he seems to be worrying that the broader stock market mightfalter again. After boldly buying when so many were selling assets,his conglomerate, Berkshire Hathaway, is pulling back, buying fewerstocks while investing in corporate and government debt. And Mr.Buffett is warning that the economy, though on the mend, remainsdeeply troubled.
“We are not out of problems yet,” Mr. Buffett said last week in aninterview, in which he reflected on the lessons of the last 12months. “We have got to get the sputtering economy back so it isfunctioning as it should be.”
Still, Mr. Buffett hardly sounded shellshocked in the wake of whathe once called the financial equivalent of Pearl Harbor. (Anestimated net worth of $37 billion would be a balm to anyone’spsyche.)
“It has been an incredibly interesting period in the last year anda half. Just the drama,” Mr. Buffett said. “Watching the movie hasbeen fun, and occasionally participating has been fun too, thoughnot in what it has done to people’s lives.”
Investors big and small hang on Mr. Buffett’s pronouncements, andwith good reason: if you had invested $1,000 in the stock ofBerkshire in 1965, you would have amassed millions of dollars by2007.
Despite that formidable record, the financial crisis dealt him astinging blow. While he has not changed his value-oriented approachto investing — he says he likes to buy quality merchandise, whethersocks or stocks, at bargain prices — Buffettologists wonder whatwill define the final chapters of his celebrated career.
In doubt, too, is the future of a post-Buffett Berkshire. Thesprawling company, whose primary business is insurance, lost abouta fifth of its market value during the last year, roughly as muchas the broader stock market. While Berkshire remains a corporatebastion, it lost $1.53 billion during the first quarter, then itstop-flight credit rating. It returned to profit during the secondquarter.
Time is short. While he has no immediate plans to retire, Mr.Buffett is believed to be grooming several possible successors,notably David L. Sokol, chairman of MidAmerican Energy Holdings atBerkshire and also chairman of NetJets, the private jet companyowned by Berkshire.
After searching in vain for good investments during the bull marketyears, Mr. Buffett used last year’s rout to make investments thatcould sow the seeds of future profits.
Justin Fuller, author of the blog Buffettologist and a partner atMidway Capital Research and Management, said the events of the lastyear, while painful for many, provided Mr. Buffett with theopportunity he had been waiting for.
“He put a ton of capital to work,” Mr. Fuller said. “The crisisgave him the ability to put one last and lasting impression onBerkshire Hathaway.”
For the moment, however, Mr. Buffett seems to be retrenching a bit.Like so many people, he was blindsided by the blowup in the housingmarket and the recession that followed, which hammered his holdingsof financial and consumer-related companies. He readily concedes hemade his share of mistakes. Among his blunders: investing in anenergy company around the time oil prices peaked, and in two Irishbanks even as that country’s financial system trembled.
Mr. Buffett declined to predict the short-run course of the stockmarket. But corporate data from Berkshire shows his company wasselling more stocks than it was buying by the end of the secondquarter, according to Bloomberg News. Its spending on stocks fellto the lowest level in more than five years, although the companyis still deftly picking up shares in some companies and buyingcorporate and government debt.
Among the stocks Mr. Buffett has been selling lately is Moody’s,the granddaddy of the much-maligned credit ratings industry.Berkshire, Moody’s largest shareholder, said last week that it hadreduced its stake by 2 percent.
The shift in Berkshire’s investments suggests Mr. Buffett isstarting to worry, said Alice Schroeder, the author of “TheSnowball,” a biography of Mr. Buffett.
But Ms. Schroeder said Mr. Buffett was also growing anxious abouthow he would be remembered. He wants to remain relevant in thetwilight of his career, she said, and is taking a more prominentrole on the public stage. That shift means ordinary investors aregetting a chance to hear more of his sage advice, but it alsocarries some risk.
“Before, he always made sure to dole out the wisdom with aneyedropper,” Ms. Schroeder said. In the past, Mr. Buffett “said itwas a mistake to believe that if you are an expert in one area thatpeople will listen to you in others,” she said.
Whatever his recent missteps, many people, from President Obamadown, listen to what Mr. Buffett has to say. He is important in hisown right as a billionaire businessman but also because millions ofordinary investors follow his homespun aphorisms, copy hisinvesting strategies and await his pronouncements on themarkets.
Mr. Buffett refused to be drawn out on where stocks are headed, buthe warned about the dangers of investing with borrowed money, orleverage, which proved disastrous when the crisis hit.
As for regrets, he has a few. His timing was bad, he concedes. Heshould have sold stocks sooner, before the markets tumbled. Then heserved up a Buffettism that any investor might heed:
Asked if anything was keeping him awake at night, he said there wasnot. “If it’s going to keep me awake at night,” Mr. Buffett said,“I am not going to go there.”

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