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巴曙松教授,博士,国务院发展研究中心金融研究所副所长,研究员,博士生导师,享受国务院特殊津贴。    巴曙松教授在银行、证券、基金、企业年金等领域有过10余年的实践工作经验,熟悉商业银行风险管理、基金与年金运作,参与中银香港海外重组上市项目,主持起草了《中银香港风险管理政策与流程》。目前的主要研究领域为金融机构风险管理与金融市场监管、企业融资问题与货币政策决策,出版了国内第一本系统研究巴塞尔新资本协议的《巴塞尔新资本协议研究》(中国金融出版社2003年版)

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reuters:17:52 19oct09 -interview-yuan to rise anew  

2009-10-20 22:29:28|  分类: 默认分类 |  标签: |举报 |字号 订阅

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REUTERS:17:52 19Oct09 -INTERVIEW-Yuan to rise anew as Chinaeconomy perks up-researcher

 

17:52 19Oct09 -INTERVIEW-Yuan to rise anew as China economyperks up-researcher
    * Yuanappreciation is part of China's exit plan
   * Beijing needs specifictimetable for yuan's global role
   * Hong Kong should be testingground for more yuan products
   * Open-market operations topchoice for policy fine-tuning
   
   By Vivi Lin and AlanWheatley
   BEIJING, Oct 19 (Reuters) -The yuan will resume its modest appreciation as part of China'sstrategy of exiting from its ultra-loose pro-growth policy once theeconomy is definitely out of danger, a prominent governmenteconomist says.
   Since the financial crisisintensified in mid-2008, China has in effect re-pegged the yuan<CNY=CFXS> around 6.83 per dollar tohelp its export industries and to cement financial stability.
   "As the economy recovers andwhen the worst is over, the yuan is likely to return -- within theframework of a managed floating exchange rate -- to a path of'modest appreciation with two-way fluctuations'," Ba Shusong, asenior research fellow at the Development Research Centre, athink-tank under China's cabinet, told Reuters Television.
   Just as halting the yuan'sclimb was part of Beijing's response to the crisis, a resumption ofthe rising trend that prevailed from July 2005 to mid-2008 would benecessary once the economy was back on a solid footing.
   The yuan gained almost 20percent against the dollar over that period following an initial2.1 percent ruation.
   "A flexible, modestlyappreciating exchange rate with two-way movement will help China'seconomic restructuring," Ba said. "An appreciating currency willhelp to boost domestic demand and balance external demand."
   Ba, who is also the chiefeconomist for the China Banking Association, said Beijing alsoneeded a stronger yuan to dampen price pressures, especiallyimport-driven inflation.
   But he said a spike in theyuan was still unlikely, partly because the exchange rate alonecannot address China's massive surpluses on the current and capitalaccounts.
   A Reuters poll issued on Oct.8 showed that the market, too, expects a very gradual rate of climb-- to 6.75 yuan per dollar in 12 months' time.[ID:nN07480911]
   
   CLEAR TIMETABLE
   Ba urged the government to mapout a clear timetable to raise the global profile of the yuan.Doing so would galvanise decision-making on the issue, which wasspread among an array of government bodies.
   "China's share of global tradeis rising. China's role in international capital flows is growing.But the role of the yuan itself and of yuan-denominated assets inthe international market is tiny, which is a serious mismatch," hesaid.
   Ba said history had shown thatsetting deadlines can make a difference. The prospect of China'sentry into the World Trade Organisation, finally achieved in 2001,forced policy makers to reform the banking systemfundamentally.
   "In 1997 and 1998, China'sbanking system was widely viewed as a time bomb for the Chineseeconomy," he said. "But now it's being hailed for how well it hashandled the crisis."
   China has been promoting theinternational role of yuan in a variety of ways. The central bankhas signed currency swaps with six central banks totalling 650billion yuan. Beijing has launched a pilot scheme to settle tradein Hong Kong and Macau in yuan. The Ministry of Finance has issuedyuan bonds in Hong Kong.
   But Ba said Beijing needed todevelop more yuan instruments to encourage the use of the currencyoverseas.
   "What will overseas exportersdo with the yuan they earn? China needs a market for yuan productsso that overseas holders of yuan have a better choice than justdepositing their money in the bank," he said.
   
   HONG KONG AND HOME
   Hong Kong would remain theprincipal testing ground as Beijing turns the yuan into aninternational currency, Ba said.
   Now that the finance ministryhas sold bonds in Hong Kong, why not let firms do the same, heasked. Yuan-denominated insurance policies would be popular in HongKong as well given confidence in the prospects for China's economyand the yuan.
   Turning back to the domesticeconomy, Ba said China was unlikely to change its basic policythrust, namely a relaxed monetary stance and proactive fiscalpolicy coupled with adjustments to money market liquidity.
   "Fine-tuning will be the key... and open-market operations should be best classified asfine-tuning," Ba said.
   "Other tools like reserverequirements and interest rates may be a secondary considerationbecause they are not as flexible as open-market operations," hesaid. (Writing by Zhou Xin; Editing by Alan Wheatley and NeilFullick) ((xin.zhou@thomsonreuters.com;+8610 6627 1220; Reuters Messaging: xin.zhou.reuters.com@reuters.net))((If you have a query or comment on this story, send an email tonews.feedback.asia@thomsonreuters.com))
Keywords: CHINA ECONOMY/  
  

 

Monday, 19 October 2009 17:52:24RTRS [nPEK171451] {C}ENDS

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