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巴曙松教授,博士,国务院发展研究中心金融研究所副所长,研究员,博士生导师,享受国务院特殊津贴。    巴曙松教授在银行、证券、基金、企业年金等领域有过10余年的实践工作经验,熟悉商业银行风险管理、基金与年金运作,参与中银香港海外重组上市项目,主持起草了《中银香港风险管理政策与流程》。目前的主要研究领域为金融机构风险管理与金融市场监管、企业融资问题与货币政策决策,出版了国内第一本系统研究巴塞尔新资本协议的《巴塞尔新资本协议研究》(中国金融出版社2003年版)

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海湾国家与中国等国商讨使用一揽子货币作为结算货币  

2009-10-06 15:46:33|  分类: 默认分类 |  标签: |举报 |字号 订阅

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海湾国家与中国、俄、日、法等国商讨使用一揽子货币而非美元作为石油交易的结算货币的安排。
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/the-demise-of-the-dollar-1798175.html
Exclusive report by Robert Fisk
The demise of the dollar
In a graphic illustration of the new world order, Arab states havelaunched secret moves with China, Russia and France to stop usingthe US currency for oil trading
By Robert Fisk
Tuesday, 6 October 2009Iran announced late last month that itsforeign currency reserves would henceforth be held in euros ratherthan dollars.
In the most profound financial change in recent Middle Easthistory, Gulf Arabs are planning – along with China, Russia, Japanand France – to end dollar dealings for oil, moving instead to abasket of currencies including the Japanese yen and Chinese yuan,the euro, gold and a new, unified currency planned for nations inthe Gulf Co-operation Council, including Saudi Arabia, Abu Dhabi,Kuwait and Qatar.
Secret meetings have already been held by finance ministers andcentral bank governors in Russia, China, Japan and Brazil to workon the scheme, which will mean that oil will no longer be priced indollars.
The plans, confirmed to The Independent by both Gulf Arab andChinese banking sources in Hong Kong, may help to explain thesudden rise in gold prices, but it also augurs an extraordinarytransition from dollar markets within nine years.
Related articles
Sean O'Grady: China will overtake America, the only question iswhen
Leading article: The end of the dollar spells the rise of a neworder
The Americans, who are aware the meetings have taken place –although they have not discovered the details – are sure to fightthis international cabal which will include hitherto loyal alliesJapan and the Gulf Arabs. Against the background to these currencymeetings, Sun Bigan, China's former special envoy to the MiddleEast, has warned there is a risk of deepening divisions betweenChina and the US over influence and oil in the Middle East."Bilateral quarrels and clashes are unavoidable," he told the Asiaand Africa Review. "We cannot lower vigilance against hostility inthe Middle East over energy interests and security."
This sounds like a dangerous prediction of a future economic warbetween the US and China over Middle East oil – yet again turningthe region's conflicts into a battle for great power supremacy.China uses more oil incrementally than the US because its growth isless energy efficient. The transitional currency in the move awayfrom dollars, according to Chinese banking sources, may well begold (WW: ah!.....). An indication of the huge amounts involved canbe gained from the wealth of Abu Dhabi, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait andQatar who together hold an estimated $2.1 trillion in dollarreserves.
The decline of American economic power linked to the current globalrecession was implicitly acknowledged by the World Bank presidentRobert Zoellick. "One of the legacies of this crisis may be arecognition of changed economic power relations," he said inIstanbul ahead of meetings this week of the IMF and World Bank. Butit is China's extraordinary new financial power – along with pastanger among oil-producing and oil-consuming nations at America'spower to interfere in the international financial system – whichhas prompted the latest discussions involving the Gulfstates.
Brazil has shown interest in collaborating in non-dollar oilpayments, along with India. Indeed, China appears to be the mostenthusiastic of all the financial powers involved, not leastbecause of its enormous trade with the Middle East.
China imports 60 per cent of its oil, much of it from the MiddleEast and Russia. The Chinese have oil production concessions inIraq – blocked by the US until this year – and since 2008 have heldan $8bn agreement with Iran to develop refining capacity and gasresources. China has oil deals in Sudan (where it has substitutedfor US interests) and has been negotiating for oil concessions withLibya, where all such contracts are joint ventures.
Furthermore, Chinese exports to the region now account for no fewerthan 10 per cent of the imports of every country in the MiddleEast, including a huge range of products from cars to weaponsystems, food, clothes, even dolls. In a clear sign of China'sgrowing financial muscle, the president of the European CentralBank, Jean-Claude Trichet, yesterday pleaded with Beijing to letthe yuan appreciate against a sliding dollar and, by extension,loosen China's reliance on US monetary policy, to help rebalancethe world economy and ease upward pressure on the euro.
Ever since the Bretton Woods agreements – the accords after theSecond World War which bequeathed the architecture for the moderninternational financial system – America's trading partners havebeen left to cope with the impact of Washington's control and, inmore recent years, the hegemony of the dollar as the dominantglobal reserve currency.
The Chinese believe, for example, that the Americans persuadedBritain to stay out of the euro in order to prevent an earlier moveaway from the dollar. But Chinese banking sources say theirdiscussions have gone too far to be blocked now. "The Russians willeventually bring in the rouble to the basket of currencies," aprominent Hong Kong broker told The Independent. "The Brits arestuck in the middle and will come into the euro. They have nochoice because they won't be able to use the US dollar."
Chinese financial sources believe President Barack Obama is toobusy fixing the US economy to concentrate on the extraordinaryimplications of the transition from the dollar in nine years' time.The current deadline for the currency transition is 2018.
The US discussed the trend briefly at the G20 summit in Pittsburgh;the Chinese Central Bank governor and other officials have beenworrying aloud about the dollar for years. Their problem is thatmuch of their national wealth is tied up in dollar assets.
"These plans will change the face of international financialtransactions," one Chinese banker said. "America and Britain mustbe very worried. You will know how worried by the thunder ofdenials this news will generate."
Iran announced late last month that its foreign currency reserveswould henceforth be held in euros rather than dollars. Bankersremember, of course, what happened to the last Middle East oilproducer to sell its oil in euros rather than dollars. A few monthsafter Saddam Hussein trumpeted his decision, the Americans andBritish invaded Iraq
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